analysis of missile defense system effect by simulation technique

Posted by barello at 2020-02-16

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With the increasing threat of North Korea's nuclear missiles, the South Korean society is carrying out measles around the deployment of the high altitude area defense (SAD). In the process of building the missile defense system of South Korea, the United States and Japan, China began to formally arrange Sade's economic pace. Around Sade's layout, in the case of rising political and social contradictions, the way to gather the theory of the state is to conduct scientific research and evaluation of the missile defense system. For the current Sade, ① efficiency ② environmental impact assessment ③ relationship with China ④ process ⑤ cost and other issues. However, since military efficiency is the most important project, other factors are studied in the perspective of defense effect of Sade after exclusion. According to an objective logic evaluation proposed by this study, under the condition of simulated autocracy, the "adequate defense" of North Korea's nuclear power is 2 For this reason, one bag is not enough, at least 5-7 bags, so as to have major regional defense.

North Korea's missile defense is limited by its current sniper system. At present, most of South Korea's missile defense system relies on the Patriot system, which is not suitable for dealing with the North Korean nuclear missile threat. In reality, the multi-layer missile defense system that can be based on South Korea is a 2-defense network composed of Sade and PAC-3. The simulation results of this study show that when the Sade system with more than 60% critical accuracy is introduced, compared with the PAC-3 fault defense network, the defense capability is at least 6 times increased by 1000 times. In addition, Sade can achieve "full defense" only when he achieves the accuracy of more than 78.5%. Therefore, the "probability of completely shooting down enemy missiles" is increased from 37% of a single defense network to 95.5%. According to the composition of the defense system, this study puts forward the sad condition to meet the "full defense". In order to be more effective in defense, it strengthens the pre Strike ability of kill chain, and maximally removes the launching means of the mobile launch pad, If we use the 2-defense net for the limited missiles, we can maximize the missile defense effect. At this time, Sade becomes the main hit axis, and PAC-3 should support Sade. If South Korea's m-sam and l-sam in independent development will also be added to the existing system, then missile defense costs will be greatly reduced.

Of course, because Sade is a 100% unverified weapon system, the question remains as to whether North Korea's missiles can be fully defended. A 100% complete defense against all missiles that can hit the enemy perfectly is impossible. But there is no use for any defense system No. considering that the higher the distance of the missile defense network, the greater the safety and security will be. It does not need the atypical proposition. According to the results of mathematical simulation, according to the insufficient basis. The detailed family and design of the simulation techniques used in this study include appendix.


1. Access 2. Comparison with the current security situation of South Korea North Korea's missile threat and Simulation of its defense system conclusion

The content of this document is the author's opinion, which is different from the official position of the Research Institute of Eshan government.

About Experts

Kim Chung Yu

Metrological Analysis Center

Dr. Jin Zhongyu was the first research member of the measurement and analysis center of the Institute. At the University of London, B.S. and limpa have studied relativity theory, received a Ph.D. in science and a diploma degree in computer science from the University of bridge. In service researcher of choice modeling and valuation group of European paradise Research Institute, and researcher in charge of Samsung memory semiconductor research institute. In addition, PCMs datafit in the UK serves as the Java software development business. The main research fields are discrete choice model development, public service value planning, WTP (willingness to pay) in the fields of transportation, health care, communication and utility. The main research object is' security at what cost? Yuantifyin in divisional usaderadederderdededededededededededederadedaffffantiantianitiantititititititititititititi

Jin Zhenyu.

Strategic Analysis Office

Dr. Jin Zhenyu is the director and chief research committee member of the Strategy Analysis Department of Eshan Institute of policy research. The former analyst officer of the National Institute of science, technology, science and technology of the United States. In addition, stratcom and NATO played an advisory role in nuclear power and strike operations, serving as former consultants for inspection, quasi soo and executive director of the U.S. Department of state. Prior to joining the State Department, Andrew Marshall was a special assistant to the director of the Department of Defense's general evaluation service. Dr. Jin Qinyu holds a bachelor's degree from Georgetown University, a master's degree from Harvard University and a doctor's degree from Art Day University.

An Sheng Gu

Editorial committee member

The former special committee member of anshengui served as the weekly magazine of the editorial office of the Research Institute of Eshan government. At present, he is in the doctoral program of chengjunguan University. In the past 30 years, he has conducted interviews in the political and international departments of the central daily, served as the leader of the unification and foreign affairs group, and the diplomatic and security editor of the central Sunday News of the central daily. After the Moscow special agent, there was also a tour special agent of the United States of Independent States. At the beginning, the reporter participated in a series of projects focusing on the formation of North Korea. The Democratic People's Republic of Korea published 1992, Central Daily. Kim Jong Nam, the son of the late Kim Jong Il's defence chief, is the only South Korean journalist. The Research Institute of e'shan government has studied China's missile combat effectiveness, China's missile defense system, Sade problem, etc. The main research objects include "the meaning of Chinese ballistic missiles to the Korean peninsula", "the deployment of Sade and China on the Korean peninsula", "the history of China's missile defense network and the meaning of the Korean peninsula".

Xian Jian Xi.

Research Department

Xian Jianxi is a researcher of the Eshan Policy Research Institute. Graduated from the Department of information mathematics, Gaoli University, and obtained a master's degree in statistics from chengjunguan University. Currently, he is in the doctoral process of Dongda University. He is a researcher of the Institute of applied statistics, chengjunguan University, and a researcher appointed by the Korean National Defense Research Institute. His research interests include hybrid models, incomplete data analysis, methodology, etc.